Monday, March 28, 2022

Ahead for Russia: Fascism, terror, external conflict, collapse of the nation, civil war - 8th letter from the Wind of Change inside the FSB

My translation of the 8th #FSBletters from the #WindofChange inside the FSB to Vladimir Osechkin. Dated 3/16.  Over 2,600 words… Please share far & wide (Twitter Thread).

If you still have not watched this video that explains the context and the genesis of the #FSBletters, please do so. It will help you understand the prism through which these letters are to be read.

I will add clarification comments inside parenthesis where necessary. Let's start:

“In December I already understood that the Ukrainian situation will cause a fire. Back then I was fully convinced there’d be no large-scale war, because that’d lead us to a dead-end from all points of view.

The plan was such: Provoke protests inside Ukraine. ОПЗЖ (Ukrainian pro-Russian political party, Opposition Bloc) with Victor Medvedchuk (Chairman of ОПЗЖ) and Vadim Rabinovich (Leader of ОПЗЖ, 2014 Presidential candidate that got slaughtered in the election) will support the protests. Ilya Kiva (People's Deputy of Ukraine in the parliament, until he was removed by a vote on Mar 15th, 2022) organizes & selects fighters from the Ukrainian power wing (riot police, etc.) who are on standby to take control of the government buildings (in Kyiv) and withstand any resistance – a perfect copy of the Ukrainian Maidan (2014), but backwards (2014 was a movement by the Ukrainians to unshackle themselves from being a perpetual puppet state of Russia).

Generally speaking, the first threat was already lurking in the shadows here – over here at the top (FSB), they have a habit of copying, but copying such large-scale processes is difficult. Every time there is a huge number of insignificant factors that are impossible to account for individually, but can be cause a crazy external effect. This was the first fear: Stupidly copying the Maidan (Ukraine’s revolution for independence from Russia) is dangerous.

The 2nd threat was also hiding here: Medvedchuk & Rabinovich are far from being charismatic leaders, and there wasn’t and isn’t much support for them in Ukraine. But they presented themselves (to the FSB) very high (as being highly influential). In other words, this was already a break from reality.

As the protests were to start, our people (Russian intel community / Kremlin) were to declare that this is also Maidan (a legitimate revolution against Ukrainian government) – will of the people, and if the government starts shooting at the protestors (In 2014, Putin’s puppet, gangster, & Ukrainian President Yanukovich ordered snipers supplied by Putin to assassinate over 100 protestors in plain view from rooftop positions), then we [Russia] will not stand idly-by.

Our (Russian) troops were supposed to be at full readiness on the border, to distract (Ukrainian) military resources and attention from Kyiv.

And only if the Ukrainian government responded with physical oppression to the protests [or if the pro-Russian forces began to blatantly lose in the unarmed street conflicts with pro-Ukrainian forces], we could begin military hostilities on the borders of LDNR (Part of Donbass region in Ukraine, Luhansk & Donetsk oblasts that have been seized by Russia in 2014) and also recognize them (as independent from Ukraine), etc.

Already here there were fears that sanctions on a new level would be imposed (by the West), and we would suffer significant military losses, as happened in August 2014 (Russian military suffered significant military losses against Ukrainian military in the war in Donbass).

We (FSB) didn’t make calculations for the war itself (Putin’s Blitzkrieg of Ukraine) – we analyzed how we would act under conditions of a full-scale war and defined the point of critical level. “Critical level” – this implies responsibility, and since no one (in the FSB) expected the war, we painted a picture of what great fellas (FSB) we are and how we’d solve all problems & within what timeframes.

In parallel, we were in an emergency mode, trying to tighten up the weak sides the for the beginning of the "pushing at the borders.” In two words – failure upon failure, and more & more problems. And it’s not just us (FSB) over there (planning pre-invasion of Ukraine), various departments were "planning" something, often interfering with each other and trying to secure a piece that would pay dividends later - career dividends, first and foremost. And then the big war broke out and we gurgled in the sh*t of reality.


Fascism is being prepared inside Russia [this is a politically correct term, but it can manifest itself as “The Red Terror,” “Stalin’s Repressions,” etc.], absolutely classical, but with another name.

The lobby for a ban on dissent is insanely strong, for a departure into a fundamentally new model of censorship. But it is incredibly difficult:

- the most passionate patriotic masses are greatly interfering inside the country: you can't send them to the front - in a modern war that would be the quickest way to dispose of those sent, and inside the country their energy is looking for an outlet and enemies. It is not easy to keep them in check, but we have not yet fully confronted these consequences;

- a radically different information world compared to the past. In essence, the Herculean work of controlling the Internet is rendered null and void, which is why we have to hack down social networks in droves. No one can regulate accounts individually through Roskomnadzor right now, especially not now; (Roskomnadzor is Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Communications, Information Technology and Mass Media, the government body in charge of domestic censorship);

- to create an alternative informational-social reality within a closed circuit is unrealistic - China has been working on this issue for a very long time, systematically and qualitatively, but it is also hard for them. And they do not export their Chinese language to the world, it is easier for them to control it. We now have a huge source of Russian-language anti-Russian segment (outside Russia), which is simply beyond control;

- OMON (riot police), police, Rosgvardia (National Guard), and all the rest. Let me tell you a military secret: when there are large-scale rallies in Moscow or St. Petersburg, we have to gather forces from all over the country.

If there is concurrent fire (mass protests) in just a couple of regions, there are two basic options. The first is that no one will be able to control it unless they get lucky [as in Khabarovsk – when they dispersed]. The second option - the involvement of "friendly forces": the Cossacks, patriotic movements, veterans' organizations, etc. The second option is a risk of the highest order.

The same Cossacks or patriotic organizations are civilians and do not have proper instructions for behavior through education and training, which means that in practice they are bound to allow "excessive force" and punitive behavior, which even the extremely angry riot police may not expect from them. They will start a lightning-fast classic Russian riot.

After that, again there are forked options: the military and the conditional Cossacks will have time to make a forceful suppression [essentially a military operation of a local nature], or there will be a real civil war, which tends to elevate the amount of mutual violence.

My summary on this point: If the special services & departments (like the FSB) are capable of getting away with “precision” terror (My understanding - kidnapping an activist from their house in the middle of the night or a false-flag terrorist bombing of apartments, etc.), then such tasks (controlling mass protests around the country) will no longer be feasible in the transition to direct fascism.

The volume of arrests and imprisonments will reach such volumes that the (law enforcement / prison) system will crack at all levels. The enforcers will overreach, and the risks of an uprising in any single region (like individual states in the US) are rapidly increasing.

And if one such conflict starts, it can grow into others (elsewhere), like a sick puppy with ticks: Here the subject of (prison) tortures will also come up, and other dissatisfied people will join in with their questions.

And here is a whole series of different scenarios: how quickly, where exactly and for what reason the first flame will ignite. And then there will be a wildfire.

But the situation also cannot be controlled without transitioning to domestic fascism: In essence the country is already governed by martial law, it’ll get much worse.

We have 3 months left even under extremely favorable conditions until we reach this crisis, which is difficult to even imagine. 3 months – is the boundary with the most ideal preconditions, beyond which is not yet rock-bottom, but the beginning of real problems. Happens sooner – I believe it, later (than 3 months from now) – no way.

Patrushev (
Secretary of the Security Council of Russia) didn’t just go meet with Kadyrov in Grozny without a reason.

Ramzan (Kadyrov), by the way, is rapidly descending from the clouds back to earth, he is no longer the Czar or God of near cosmic proportions, as he appeared be even just recently. He even promised to cut off heads in the name of blood vengeance, and “established” relations with his Caucus neighbors from a position of strength. He certainly has no reason to fear any sanctions – in a bad scenario he will be dealt with exactly how he’s dealt with his enemies.

Under such conditions, a military mobilization of the country is necessary in every sense. “Necessary” not for the population, but for the governing system which dominates Russia.

(Mentioned in the 3rd #FSBletters) Exactly what I was afraid of: military expediency will replace law, real terror will be triggered. And
terror is a self-perpetuating thing. It’s not hard to get it started, but you can’t stop it through prohibition.

That is why, by the way, the "Bolshevik terror" ended with the extermination of those who carried it out.

Then it was necessary to exterminate those who “exterminated the exterminators” – From this purely technical perspective, Stalin in some sense slowed down the terror rather than facilitating more of it by exterminating his own (subordinates), who were flying through the country on black crows. Otherwise, terror becomes the only form of dominant ideology and quickly devours the entire regime and country.

What I am afraid of: We’ll be able to start the terror. Enemy is at the gates, martial law, “Айн фольк, айн Райх, айн фюрер.”

(In Russian, #WindofChange writes here: “Айн фольк, айн Райх, айн фюрер” – which is German written phonetically in Cyrillic – “Ein Volk, ein Reich, ein Führer”, which of course translates to “One People, One Reich, One Fuhrer.”)

Distinction between “we/them” – just need the will & justification. And who then who will & how put the brakes on this? We don’t have such a resource. But at the top there is no understanding that simply proclaiming on TV that “Enough, We won!” – no, folks, it doesn’t work like that. (Explanation that once real domestic terror on the people is unleashed, it’s extremely difficult to stop it when it’s served its purpose.)

You don't use fire to deal with a cockroach infestation at a gunpowder warehouse. Well, at least sensible people dont.

In principle, those at the top (Kremlin) understand this to some extent. Not all. Hence there are ideas to play with very high-stakes. There’s only one calculation – the world (the West) will chicken out. (Empty threats is the only strategy that the Kremlin has against the West)

And here comes the psychology. Power, not backed by responsibility, gives birth to terrible things. And it makes a person irrational. All our key people are not young men, and for the last twenty years they have been living in absolute power, surrounded by opportunists. They think they are gods. And they don't see reality.
And deep down, they are terribly afraid.

That being said:

- The regions (like separate states in the US) have finally been ceded into the hands of local elites. "You should be Z" - right now, we will close our eyes to everything else. (Implication here is vigilante, local, regional terrorism in the name of "Z" will go unpunished by the central authorities.) As never before.

Collapsed roads (NOTE: typical due to corruption at every level of government in Russia, especially in rural areas) - blame it on the enemy, broken road signs - raise the populace under the banner of Z.

“Rule as you wish boyar (Russian term for nobleman) - the Czar has unshackled you to do anything.”

- No one has any idea what the key agencies’ strategies are, what their course of action is right now. The status of the state programs, the linkage of the different new packages, the consequences. You too can enter the ring against a boxing champion with an attitude of “never dominated here before, but now I’ll pull my will into my fist – most important is the attitude.”

But in the case of an entire nation, it's as if you and all other human rights activists were going to go head-to-head with an equal number of top fighters. And this applies to more than just the economy here;

- If we don't get any sort of international result quickly, then India, China, and the Arab world will turn their backs on us. And we may also be reminded of our territorial claims.
They don't like the weak, so we will have to show strength;

- No one trusts anyone anymore. The monolithic nature of the elites is only because no one will allow others to jump out ahead. It's cynical, but it's a formula that works, and control over everyone is reinforced. Ours guys (FSB) too are now tightly guarding both the inner circles and the families of the leadership. But to guarantee that some of the members of the government will not go "to the enemies" with their denunciations - no one can do that. And what kind of machinations, alliances, etc., are about to begin – there’s no guessing.

- At the very top, a big showdown is inevitable. And it’ll be so all over the vertical (chain-of-command). I think sudden deaths from heart, tea, and colds will become epidemic, and any wealthy businessman can now easily become a Western agent for purposes of confiscation - if only there was something to squeeze out (financially out of the businessman).

- Logical decisions have ceased to be made here (FSB).

On the positive side - I have more free time, and my psyche doesn’t allow me to be in a state of fear all the time. I try not to ruin the mood of the management with real reports, I can provide you with much more information. That’s it for the positives.

By all appearances, the West is preparing Navalny for the role as Russia's new head of state.
Not because he's good, but because "who else can they negotiate with anyway?" (My comment: Navalny was publicly for the annexation of Crimea by Putin) It’s the only possible transitional option, because none of the current elites will be negotiated with. They (the West) will grant amnesty [it can only be earned now in one way that greatly displeases GDP (Gross Domestic Product)], but with nuance and within very narrow limits. And the more time ticks away, the less amnesty they can bargain for.

So we have lots to look forward to: Fascism, terror, external conflict, collapse of the nation, civil war. In isolation or in combination – it’s how the dice will roll. A person in freefall from a skyscraper also has options: Can land head-first, can aim for the asphalt with his legs, can try to scratch the wall or vice versa – kick it away with his legs. But to pull it together and say: “Stop, I am going back to the rooftop,” he cannot. Whether he be strong, brave, stupid, desperate, or brilliant – once he’s in freefall, it doesn’t matter anymore and can’t “return everything as it was.” This is about us today. (About the entire Russia)

(END OF TRANSLATION of #FSBletters #8 from the #WindofChange)


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