My translation of the 8th #FSBletters from the #WindofChange inside the FSB to Vladimir Osechkin. Dated 3/16. Over 2,600 words… Please share far & wide (Twitter Thread).
If you still have not watched this video that explains the context and the genesis of the #FSBletters, please do so. It will help you understand the prism through which these letters are to be read.
I will add clarification
comments inside parenthesis where necessary. Let's start:
“In December I already
understood that the Ukrainian situation will cause a fire. Back then I was
fully convinced there’d be no large-scale war, because that’d lead us to a
dead-end from all points of view.
The plan was such: Provoke protests
inside Ukraine. ОПЗЖ (Ukrainian pro-Russian political party,
Opposition Bloc) with Victor Medvedchuk (Chairman of ОПЗЖ) and Vadim Rabinovich (Leader of ОПЗЖ, 2014 Presidential candidate that got
slaughtered in the election) will support the protests. Ilya Kiva (People's
Deputy of Ukraine in the parliament, until he was removed by a vote on Mar 15th,
2022) organizes & selects fighters from the Ukrainian power wing (riot
police, etc.) who are on standby to take control of the government buildings
(in Kyiv) and withstand any resistance – a perfect copy of the Ukrainian Maidan
(2014), but backwards (2014 was a movement by the Ukrainians to unshackle
themselves from being a perpetual puppet state of Russia).
Generally speaking, the first threat was already
lurking in the shadows here – over here at the top (FSB), they have a habit of copying,
but copying such large-scale processes is difficult. Every time there is a huge
number of insignificant factors that are impossible to account for
individually, but can be cause a crazy external effect. This was the first
fear: Stupidly copying the Maidan (Ukraine’s revolution for independence from
Russia) is dangerous.
The 2nd threat was also hiding here:
Medvedchuk & Rabinovich are far from being charismatic
leaders, and there wasn’t and isn’t much support for them in Ukraine. But they presented
themselves (to the FSB) very high (as being highly influential). In other words,
this was already a break from reality.
As the protests were to start, our people (Russian intel community / Kremlin) were
to declare that this is also Maidan (a legitimate revolution against Ukrainian
government) – will of the people, and if the government starts shooting at the
protestors (In 2014, Putin’s puppet, gangster, & Ukrainian President
Yanukovich ordered snipers supplied by Putin to assassinate over 100 protestors
in plain view from rooftop positions), then we [Russia] will not stand idly-by.
Our (Russian) troops were supposed to be at full
readiness on the border, to distract (Ukrainian) military resources and attention
from Kyiv.
And only if the Ukrainian government responded with
physical oppression to the protests [or if the pro-Russian forces began to blatantly
lose in the unarmed street conflicts with pro-Ukrainian forces], we could begin
military hostilities on the borders of LDNR (Part of Donbass region in Ukraine,
Luhansk & Donetsk oblasts that have been seized by Russia in 2014) and also
recognize them (as independent from Ukraine), etc.
Already here there were fears that sanctions on a new level would be imposed (by
the West), and we would suffer significant military losses, as happened in
August 2014 (Russian military suffered significant military losses against
Ukrainian military in the war in Donbass).
We (FSB) didn’t make calculations for the war itself
(Putin’s Blitzkrieg of Ukraine) – we analyzed how we would act under conditions
of a full-scale war and defined the point of critical level. “Critical level” –
this implies responsibility, and since no one (in the FSB) expected the war, we
painted a picture of what great fellas (FSB) we are and how we’d solve all
problems & within what timeframes.
In parallel, we were in an
emergency mode, trying to tighten up the weak sides the for the beginning of
the "pushing at the borders.” In two words – failure upon failure, and
more & more problems. And it’s not just us (FSB) over there (planning pre-invasion
of Ukraine), various departments were "planning" something, often
interfering with each other and trying to secure a piece that would pay dividends
later - career dividends, first and foremost. And then the big war broke out and
we gurgled in the sh*t of reality.
Fascism is being prepared
inside Russia [this is a politically correct term, but it can manifest itself
as “The Red Terror,” “Stalin’s Repressions,” etc.], absolutely classical, but with
another name.
The lobby for a ban on dissent
is insanely strong, for a departure into a fundamentally new model of
censorship. But it is incredibly difficult:
- the most passionate patriotic masses are greatly
interfering inside the country: you can't send them to the front - in a modern
war that would be the quickest way to dispose of those sent, and inside the
country their energy is looking for an outlet and enemies. It is not easy to keep them in check, but we have not yet
fully confronted these consequences;
- a radically different information world compared to the
past. In essence, the Herculean work of controlling the Internet is rendered
null and void, which is why we have to hack down social networks in droves. No
one can regulate accounts individually through Roskomnadzor right now,
especially not now; (Roskomnadzor is Russian Federal Service for Supervision of
Communications, Information Technology and Mass Media, the government body in
charge of domestic censorship);
- to create an alternative informational-social reality
within a closed circuit is unrealistic - China has been working on this issue
for a very long time, systematically and qualitatively, but it is also hard for
them. And they do not export their Chinese language to the world, it is easier
for them to control it. We now have a huge source of Russian-language
anti-Russian segment (outside Russia), which is simply beyond control;
- OMON (riot police), police, Rosgvardia (National Guard),
and all the rest. Let me tell you a military secret: when there are large-scale
rallies in Moscow or St. Petersburg, we have to gather forces from all over the
country.
If there is concurrent fire (mass protests) in just a
couple of regions, there are two basic options. The first is that no one will be
able to control it unless they get lucky [as in Khabarovsk – when they dispersed].
The second option - the involvement of "friendly forces": the
Cossacks, patriotic movements, veterans' organizations, etc. The second option
is a risk of the highest order.
The same Cossacks or patriotic organizations are civilians
and do not have proper instructions for behavior through education and training,
which means that in practice they are bound to allow "excessive
force" and punitive behavior, which even the extremely angry riot police
may not expect from them. They will start a lightning-fast classic Russian
riot.
After that, again there are forked options: the military
and the conditional Cossacks will have time to make a forceful suppression [essentially
a military operation of a local nature], or there will be a real civil war,
which tends to elevate the amount of mutual violence.
My summary on this point: If the special services &
departments (like the FSB) are capable of getting away with “precision” terror
(My understanding - kidnapping an activist from their house in the middle of
the night or a false-flag terrorist bombing of apartments, etc.), then such
tasks (controlling mass protests around the country) will no longer be feasible
in the transition to direct fascism.
The volume of arrests and imprisonments will reach such
volumes that the (law enforcement / prison) system will crack at all levels.
The enforcers will overreach, and the risks of an uprising in any single region
(like individual states in the US) are rapidly increasing.
And
if one such conflict starts, it can grow into others (elsewhere), like a sick
puppy with ticks: Here the subject of (prison) tortures will also come up, and
other dissatisfied people will join in with their questions.
And
here is a whole series of different scenarios: how quickly, where exactly and
for what reason the first flame will ignite. And then there will be a wildfire.
But the situation also cannot be controlled without transitioning
to domestic fascism: In essence the country is already governed by martial law,
it’ll get much worse.
We have 3 months left even under extremely favorable conditions
until we reach this crisis, which is difficult to even imagine. 3 months – is the
boundary with the most ideal preconditions, beyond which is not yet
rock-bottom, but the beginning of real problems. Happens sooner – I believe it,
later (than 3 months from now) – no way.
Patrushev (Secretary of the Security Council of
Russia) didn’t just go meet with Kadyrov in Grozny without a
reason.
Ramzan (Kadyrov), by the way, is rapidly descending from the
clouds back to earth, he is no longer the Czar or God of near cosmic
proportions, as he appeared be even just recently. He even promised to cut off heads
in the name of blood vengeance, and “established” relations with his Caucus
neighbors from a position of strength. He certainly has no reason to fear any sanctions
– in a bad scenario he will be dealt with exactly how he’s dealt with his
enemies.
Under such conditions, a military mobilization of the country is necessary in
every sense. “Necessary” not for the population, but for the governing system
which dominates Russia.
(Mentioned
in the 3rd #FSBletters) Exactly what I was afraid of: military
expediency will replace law, real terror will be triggered. And terror is a self-perpetuating thing. It’s not hard to get it
started, but you can’t stop it through prohibition.
The Scariest. If at the top they decide to issue a command of “military expediency” – hell will be here immediately. Military expediency is lawlessness. The right of force. A person is psychologically wired to seek justifications for all his actions.
— Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) March 10, 2022
That
is why, by the way, the "Bolshevik terror" ended with the
extermination of those who carried it out.
Then
it was necessary to exterminate those who “exterminated the exterminators” – From
this purely technical perspective, Stalin in some sense slowed down the terror
rather than facilitating more of it by exterminating his own (subordinates),
who were flying through the country on black crows. Otherwise, terror becomes
the only form of dominant ideology and quickly devours the entire regime and
country.
What I am afraid of: We’ll be able to start the terror. Enemy
is at the gates, martial law, “Айн фольк, айн Райх, айн фюрер.”
(In Russian, #WindofChange writes here: “Айн фольк, айн Райх, айн фюрер” – which is German written
phonetically in Cyrillic – “Ein Volk, ein Reich, ein Führer”, which of course translates
to “One People, One Reich, One Fuhrer.”)
Distinction
between “we/them” – just need the will & justification. And who then who will
& how put the brakes on this? We don’t have such a resource. But at the top
there is no understanding that simply proclaiming on TV that “Enough, We won!” –
no, folks, it doesn’t work like that. (Explanation that once real domestic terror
on the people is unleashed, it’s extremely difficult to stop it when it’s served
its purpose.)
You don't use fire to deal with a cockroach infestation at a
gunpowder warehouse. Well, at least sensible people don’t.
In principle, those at the top (Kremlin) understand this to
some extent. Not all. Hence there are ideas to play with very high-stakes.
There’s only one calculation – the world (the West) will chicken out. (Empty threats
is the only strategy that the Kremlin has against the West)
And here
comes the psychology. Power, not backed by responsibility, gives birth to
terrible things. And it makes a person irrational. All our key people are not
young men, and for the last twenty years they have been living in absolute
power, surrounded by opportunists. They think they are gods. And they don't see
reality. And deep down, they are terribly afraid.
That being said:
- The regions (like separate states in the US) have finally
been ceded into the hands of local elites. "You should be Z" - right
now, we will close our eyes to everything else. (Implication here is vigilante,
local, regional terrorism in the name of "Z" will go unpunished by
the central authorities.) As never before.
Collapsed roads (NOTE: typical due to corruption at every
level of government in Russia, especially in rural areas) - blame it on the
enemy, broken road signs - raise the populace under the banner of Z.
“Rule as you wish boyar (Russian term for nobleman) - the Czar
has unshackled you to do anything.”
- No one has any idea what the key agencies’ strategies are,
what their course of action is right now. The status of the state programs, the
linkage of the different new packages, the consequences. You too can enter the ring
against a boxing champion with an attitude of “never dominated here before, but
now I’ll pull my will into my fist – most important is the attitude.”
But in the case of an entire nation, it's as if you and all
other human rights activists were going to go head-to-head with an equal number
of top fighters. And this applies to more than just the economy here;
- If we don't get any sort of international result quickly, then India, China,
and the Arab world will turn their backs on us. And we may also be reminded of
our territorial claims. They
don't like the weak, so we will have to show strength;
- No one trusts anyone anymore. The monolithic nature of
the elites is only because no one will allow others to jump out ahead. It's
cynical, but it's a formula that works, and control over everyone is
reinforced. Ours guys (FSB) too are now tightly guarding both the inner circles
and the families of the leadership. But to guarantee that some of the members
of the government will not go "to the enemies" with their
denunciations - no one can do that. And what kind of machinations, alliances,
etc., are about to begin – there’s no guessing.
- At the very top, a big showdown is inevitable. And it’ll
be so all over the vertical (chain-of-command). I think sudden deaths from
heart, tea, and colds will become epidemic, and any wealthy businessman can now
easily become a Western agent for purposes of confiscation - if only there was
something to squeeze out (financially out of the businessman).
- Logical decisions have ceased to be made
here (FSB).
On the positive side - I have more free time, and my psyche
doesn’t allow me to be in a state of fear all the time. I try not to ruin the
mood of the management with real reports, I can provide you with much more
information. That’s it for the positives.
By all appearances, the West is preparing Navalny for the role as Russia's new
head of state.
Not because he's good, but because "who else can they negotiate with
anyway?" (My comment: Navalny was publicly for the annexation of Crimea by
Putin) It’s the only possible transitional option, because none of the current
elites will be negotiated with. They (the West) will grant amnesty [it can only
be earned now in one way that greatly displeases GDP (Gross Domestic Product)],
but with nuance and within very narrow limits. And the more time ticks away,
the less amnesty they can bargain for.
So we have lots to look forward to: Fascism, terror, external
conflict, collapse of the nation, civil war. In isolation or in combination – it’s
how the dice will roll. A person in freefall from a skyscraper also has options:
Can land head-first, can aim for the asphalt with his legs, can try to scratch
the wall or vice versa – kick it away with his legs. But to pull it together and
say: “Stop, I am going back to the rooftop,” he cannot. Whether he be strong, brave,
stupid, desperate, or brilliant – once he’s in freefall, it doesn’t matter
anymore and can’t “return everything as it was.” This is about us today. (About the entire Russia)
(END
OF TRANSLATION of #FSBletters #8 from the #WindofChange)
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