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All #FSBletters translated as of June 26th, 2022 - Chronological Order - Look Inside

Before reading these #FSBletters from the #WindofChange, please watch/listen to the following audio for the origin & context of these le...

Monday, March 28, 2022

Ahead for Russia: Fascism, terror, external conflict, collapse of the nation, civil war - 8th letter from the Wind of Change inside the FSB

My translation of the 8th #FSBletters from the #WindofChange inside the FSB to Vladimir Osechkin. Dated 3/16.  Over 2,600 words… Please share far & wide (Twitter Thread).

If you still have not watched this video that explains the context and the genesis of the #FSBletters, please do so. It will help you understand the prism through which these letters are to be read.

I will add clarification comments inside parenthesis where necessary. Let's start:

“In December I already understood that the Ukrainian situation will cause a fire. Back then I was fully convinced there’d be no large-scale war, because that’d lead us to a dead-end from all points of view.

The plan was such: Provoke protests inside Ukraine. ОПЗЖ (Ukrainian pro-Russian political party, Opposition Bloc) with Victor Medvedchuk (Chairman of ОПЗЖ) and Vadim Rabinovich (Leader of ОПЗЖ, 2014 Presidential candidate that got slaughtered in the election) will support the protests. Ilya Kiva (People's Deputy of Ukraine in the parliament, until he was removed by a vote on Mar 15th, 2022) organizes & selects fighters from the Ukrainian power wing (riot police, etc.) who are on standby to take control of the government buildings (in Kyiv) and withstand any resistance – a perfect copy of the Ukrainian Maidan (2014), but backwards (2014 was a movement by the Ukrainians to unshackle themselves from being a perpetual puppet state of Russia).

Generally speaking, the first threat was already lurking in the shadows here – over here at the top (FSB), they have a habit of copying, but copying such large-scale processes is difficult. Every time there is a huge number of insignificant factors that are impossible to account for individually, but can be cause a crazy external effect. This was the first fear: Stupidly copying the Maidan (Ukraine’s revolution for independence from Russia) is dangerous.

The 2nd threat was also hiding here: Medvedchuk & Rabinovich are far from being charismatic leaders, and there wasn’t and isn’t much support for them in Ukraine. But they presented themselves (to the FSB) very high (as being highly influential). In other words, this was already a break from reality.

As the protests were to start, our people (Russian intel community / Kremlin) were to declare that this is also Maidan (a legitimate revolution against Ukrainian government) – will of the people, and if the government starts shooting at the protestors (In 2014, Putin’s puppet, gangster, & Ukrainian President Yanukovich ordered snipers supplied by Putin to assassinate over 100 protestors in plain view from rooftop positions), then we [Russia] will not stand idly-by.

Our (Russian) troops were supposed to be at full readiness on the border, to distract (Ukrainian) military resources and attention from Kyiv.

And only if the Ukrainian government responded with physical oppression to the protests [or if the pro-Russian forces began to blatantly lose in the unarmed street conflicts with pro-Ukrainian forces], we could begin military hostilities on the borders of LDNR (Part of Donbass region in Ukraine, Luhansk & Donetsk oblasts that have been seized by Russia in 2014) and also recognize them (as independent from Ukraine), etc.

Already here there were fears that sanctions on a new level would be imposed (by the West), and we would suffer significant military losses, as happened in August 2014 (Russian military suffered significant military losses against Ukrainian military in the war in Donbass).

We (FSB) didn’t make calculations for the war itself (Putin’s Blitzkrieg of Ukraine) – we analyzed how we would act under conditions of a full-scale war and defined the point of critical level. “Critical level” – this implies responsibility, and since no one (in the FSB) expected the war, we painted a picture of what great fellas (FSB) we are and how we’d solve all problems & within what timeframes.

In parallel, we were in an emergency mode, trying to tighten up the weak sides the for the beginning of the "pushing at the borders.” In two words – failure upon failure, and more & more problems. And it’s not just us (FSB) over there (planning pre-invasion of Ukraine), various departments were "planning" something, often interfering with each other and trying to secure a piece that would pay dividends later - career dividends, first and foremost. And then the big war broke out and we gurgled in the sh*t of reality.

 

Fascism is being prepared inside Russia [this is a politically correct term, but it can manifest itself as “The Red Terror,” “Stalin’s Repressions,” etc.], absolutely classical, but with another name.

The lobby for a ban on dissent is insanely strong, for a departure into a fundamentally new model of censorship. But it is incredibly difficult:

- the most passionate patriotic masses are greatly interfering inside the country: you can't send them to the front - in a modern war that would be the quickest way to dispose of those sent, and inside the country their energy is looking for an outlet and enemies. It is not easy to keep them in check, but we have not yet fully confronted these consequences;

- a radically different information world compared to the past. In essence, the Herculean work of controlling the Internet is rendered null and void, which is why we have to hack down social networks in droves. No one can regulate accounts individually through Roskomnadzor right now, especially not now; (Roskomnadzor is Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Communications, Information Technology and Mass Media, the government body in charge of domestic censorship);

- to create an alternative informational-social reality within a closed circuit is unrealistic - China has been working on this issue for a very long time, systematically and qualitatively, but it is also hard for them. And they do not export their Chinese language to the world, it is easier for them to control it. We now have a huge source of Russian-language anti-Russian segment (outside Russia), which is simply beyond control;

- OMON (riot police), police, Rosgvardia (National Guard), and all the rest. Let me tell you a military secret: when there are large-scale rallies in Moscow or St. Petersburg, we have to gather forces from all over the country.

If there is concurrent fire (mass protests) in just a couple of regions, there are two basic options. The first is that no one will be able to control it unless they get lucky [as in Khabarovsk – when they dispersed]. The second option - the involvement of "friendly forces": the Cossacks, patriotic movements, veterans' organizations, etc. The second option is a risk of the highest order.

The same Cossacks or patriotic organizations are civilians and do not have proper instructions for behavior through education and training, which means that in practice they are bound to allow "excessive force" and punitive behavior, which even the extremely angry riot police may not expect from them. They will start a lightning-fast classic Russian riot.

After that, again there are forked options: the military and the conditional Cossacks will have time to make a forceful suppression [essentially a military operation of a local nature], or there will be a real civil war, which tends to elevate the amount of mutual violence.

My summary on this point: If the special services & departments (like the FSB) are capable of getting away with “precision” terror (My understanding - kidnapping an activist from their house in the middle of the night or a false-flag terrorist bombing of apartments, etc.), then such tasks (controlling mass protests around the country) will no longer be feasible in the transition to direct fascism.

The volume of arrests and imprisonments will reach such volumes that the (law enforcement / prison) system will crack at all levels. The enforcers will overreach, and the risks of an uprising in any single region (like individual states in the US) are rapidly increasing.

And if one such conflict starts, it can grow into others (elsewhere), like a sick puppy with ticks: Here the subject of (prison) tortures will also come up, and other dissatisfied people will join in with their questions.

And here is a whole series of different scenarios: how quickly, where exactly and for what reason the first flame will ignite. And then there will be a wildfire.

But the situation also cannot be controlled without transitioning to domestic fascism: In essence the country is already governed by martial law, it’ll get much worse.

We have 3 months left even under extremely favorable conditions until we reach this crisis, which is difficult to even imagine. 3 months – is the boundary with the most ideal preconditions, beyond which is not yet rock-bottom, but the beginning of real problems. Happens sooner – I believe it, later (than 3 months from now) – no way.

Patrushev (
Secretary of the Security Council of Russia) didn’t just go meet with Kadyrov in Grozny without a reason.

Ramzan (Kadyrov), by the way, is rapidly descending from the clouds back to earth, he is no longer the Czar or God of near cosmic proportions, as he appeared be even just recently. He even promised to cut off heads in the name of blood vengeance, and “established” relations with his Caucus neighbors from a position of strength. He certainly has no reason to fear any sanctions – in a bad scenario he will be dealt with exactly how he’s dealt with his enemies.

Under such conditions, a military mobilization of the country is necessary in every sense. “Necessary” not for the population, but for the governing system which dominates Russia.

(Mentioned in the 3rd #FSBletters) Exactly what I was afraid of: military expediency will replace law, real terror will be triggered. And
terror is a self-perpetuating thing. It’s not hard to get it started, but you can’t stop it through prohibition.

That is why, by the way, the "Bolshevik terror" ended with the extermination of those who carried it out.

Then it was necessary to exterminate those who “exterminated the exterminators” – From this purely technical perspective, Stalin in some sense slowed down the terror rather than facilitating more of it by exterminating his own (subordinates), who were flying through the country on black crows. Otherwise, terror becomes the only form of dominant ideology and quickly devours the entire regime and country.

What I am afraid of: We’ll be able to start the terror. Enemy is at the gates, martial law, “Айн фольк, айн Райх, айн фюрер.”

(In Russian, #WindofChange writes here: “Айн фольк, айн Райх, айн фюрер” – which is German written phonetically in Cyrillic – “Ein Volk, ein Reich, ein Führer”, which of course translates to “One People, One Reich, One Fuhrer.”)

Distinction between “we/them” – just need the will & justification. And who then who will & how put the brakes on this? We don’t have such a resource. But at the top there is no understanding that simply proclaiming on TV that “Enough, We won!” – no, folks, it doesn’t work like that. (Explanation that once real domestic terror on the people is unleashed, it’s extremely difficult to stop it when it’s served its purpose.)

You don't use fire to deal with a cockroach infestation at a gunpowder warehouse. Well, at least sensible people dont.

In principle, those at the top (Kremlin) understand this to some extent. Not all. Hence there are ideas to play with very high-stakes. There’s only one calculation – the world (the West) will chicken out. (Empty threats is the only strategy that the Kremlin has against the West)

And here comes the psychology. Power, not backed by responsibility, gives birth to terrible things. And it makes a person irrational. All our key people are not young men, and for the last twenty years they have been living in absolute power, surrounded by opportunists. They think they are gods. And they don't see reality.
And deep down, they are terribly afraid.

That being said:

- The regions (like separate states in the US) have finally been ceded into the hands of local elites. "You should be Z" - right now, we will close our eyes to everything else. (Implication here is vigilante, local, regional terrorism in the name of "Z" will go unpunished by the central authorities.) As never before.

Collapsed roads (NOTE: typical due to corruption at every level of government in Russia, especially in rural areas) - blame it on the enemy, broken road signs - raise the populace under the banner of Z.

“Rule as you wish boyar (Russian term for nobleman) - the Czar has unshackled you to do anything.”

- No one has any idea what the key agencies’ strategies are, what their course of action is right now. The status of the state programs, the linkage of the different new packages, the consequences. You too can enter the ring against a boxing champion with an attitude of “never dominated here before, but now I’ll pull my will into my fist – most important is the attitude.”

But in the case of an entire nation, it's as if you and all other human rights activists were going to go head-to-head with an equal number of top fighters. And this applies to more than just the economy here;

- If we don't get any sort of international result quickly, then India, China, and the Arab world will turn their backs on us. And we may also be reminded of our territorial claims.
They don't like the weak, so we will have to show strength;

- No one trusts anyone anymore. The monolithic nature of the elites is only because no one will allow others to jump out ahead. It's cynical, but it's a formula that works, and control over everyone is reinforced. Ours guys (FSB) too are now tightly guarding both the inner circles and the families of the leadership. But to guarantee that some of the members of the government will not go "to the enemies" with their denunciations - no one can do that. And what kind of machinations, alliances, etc., are about to begin – there’s no guessing.

- At the very top, a big showdown is inevitable. And it’ll be so all over the vertical (chain-of-command). I think sudden deaths from heart, tea, and colds will become epidemic, and any wealthy businessman can now easily become a Western agent for purposes of confiscation - if only there was something to squeeze out (financially out of the businessman).

- Logical decisions have ceased to be made here (FSB).

On the positive side - I have more free time, and my psyche doesn’t allow me to be in a state of fear all the time. I try not to ruin the mood of the management with real reports, I can provide you with much more information. That’s it for the positives.

By all appearances, the West is preparing Navalny for the role as Russia's new head of state.
Not because he's good, but because "who else can they negotiate with anyway?" (My comment: Navalny was publicly for the annexation of Crimea by Putin) It’s the only possible transitional option, because none of the current elites will be negotiated with. They (the West) will grant amnesty [it can only be earned now in one way that greatly displeases GDP (Gross Domestic Product)], but with nuance and within very narrow limits. And the more time ticks away, the less amnesty they can bargain for.

So we have lots to look forward to: Fascism, terror, external conflict, collapse of the nation, civil war. In isolation or in combination – it’s how the dice will roll. A person in freefall from a skyscraper also has options: Can land head-first, can aim for the asphalt with his legs, can try to scratch the wall or vice versa – kick it away with his legs. But to pull it together and say: “Stop, I am going back to the rooftop,” he cannot. Whether he be strong, brave, stupid, desperate, or brilliant – once he’s in freefall, it doesn’t matter anymore and can’t “return everything as it was.” This is about us today. (About the entire Russia)

(END OF TRANSLATION of #FSBletters #8 from the #WindofChange)

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Saturday, March 26, 2022

Putin's plan to reframe invasion of Ukraine as a religious WW3 - 12th letter from the Wind of Change inside the FSB

Twitter: @igorsushko / Email: igor.sushko@protonmail.com

First, please watch this video in which I demystify & explain the origins of the FSB letters from the Wind of Change to Vladimir Osechkin. This information will arm you with the right prism through which to view & interpret all of the #FSBletters. 



My translation of the 12th #FSBletters from the #WindofChange inside the FSB to Vladimir Osechkin. Dated 3/26 - TODAY. Please share far & wide.

I will add clarification comments inside parenthesis where necessary. Let's start:

[PORTION REDACTED]

“… amount of blatantly fake intel dumps within the FSB has increased drastically in order to try to catch the leakers (#WindOfChange & others).

The leaks are very problematic (for the FSB): every serious businessman, politician, retiree, or dedicated penetrator has channels for getting information, so the Service's excitement is understandable. (This means the FSB is leaking like a sieve now - in all directions & to everyone)

For this reason, I cannot yet convey the information that needs to be conveyed (because that could risk #WindofChange being identified). In a nutshell, we are tearing our way to a new level of insanity. Everything is bad.

The main points about events that I can & should relay:

Bortnikov (Head of the FSB) managed to misdirect/deflect the brunt of criticism away from the FSB. Now the main culprit is Shoigu – if it were not for his catastrophic military miscalculation, then … (the Russian position wouldn’t be this dire in Ukraine). This view is now supported by many people on all sides.

Now the only chance for the FSB [or its leadership] to survive – provide the necessary facts about the high-ranking enemies in the country. (To place blame for the failures in this war, like it was done with Shoigu)

The Communist Party & especially their regional representatives, very high-ranking government officials, individual elected representatives, including those in the Duma (The Russian parliament) – they’re being targeted (to blame) with a level of intensity never seen before. And that was already being done before, albeit pre-emptively. Exposing of the powerful players who aim to overthrow the government should become a trend. “Enemies (of Putin) have already surrounded the Kremlin, if we don’t do this, the country will perish.” That’s the outlook.

War-time psychosis is growing into war-time lunacy.  I don’t have an explanation for the dominant certainty among the leadership (not just in the FSB) that bets on military escalation will yield a positive outcome.

The thinking is that the West started a war against Russia, and so counter-offensive measures are needed in search of a compromise. And the saber-rattling has its own logic: If the military situation on the borders is inflamed (by Russia, raise tension) then even an accidental or an entirely localized incident can lead to the military to respond based on established protocols & instructions. (On Russian borders with countries beside Ukraine)

One accidental & small incident will be enough to lead to a large-scale conflict, and “who started it” will be impossible to figure out. In all, the “Gordian Knot” (see #FSBletters #6) is becoming more & more relevant & realistic against the backdrop of the changing events.

Armenia – a terrorist threat, presumably – one of the Orthodox churches in Gyumri. Two options: a bloody terrorist attack on civilians, the rapid arrest of [our] perpetrators, who must have an Azerbaijani-Ukrainian connection (to blame Ukraine for the attack). A Turkish-Kosovo trail is very desirable as well. 

This will allow:

- To politically block Azerbaijan's offensive potential in Karabakh due to the almost complete transfer of our peacekeepers (#WindofChange is being sarcastic in this reference to the Russian military) to Ukraine such a turn is inevitable there, which severely affects Russia's position;

- Reframe the “Russian war against Nazism” to an “international war to protect the (Christian) Orthodoxy” with a chance to widen the belt of support for Russia, including inside territories of hostile governments;

- A chance for Serbia's offensive in Kosovo, which could be a trigger for a broad front of territorial redistribution, when Hungary gets involved to partition Ukraine, and other countries can start coming to a head against each other. This will prevent Western countries from focusing specifically on Russia;

- To divert attention from Ukraine as a victim in the international arena, creating a point of attention to the Armenian-Azerbaijani (Orthodox-Islamic) standoff, which could also become a stumbling block for Europe and Turkey;

- A blow to the positions of the authorities in Yerevan (capital of Armenia), which are considered extremely undesirable for the Kremlin.

Second scenario – a successful unmasking of the preparation of such terrorist attack by our security services. (Attack on an Orthodox church in Armenia, which would be planned by the FSB & then uncovered as the FSB). We don’t consider the Armenian security services to be professional (competent), [as was the assessment of the Ukrainian Armed forces until recently], so such an FSB success inside Armenian territory (“the FSB helped prevent a terrorist attack!”) could indebt Yerevan to Russia in terms of their participation within the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization, consisting of select post-Soviet states). And all the other named objectives, if not as assertively, could be achieved. (By preventing their own terrorist attack rather than actually committing the terrorist attack)

No matter what people think of the FSB, but it’s the FSB that is pursuing the 2nd option (they’d rather be seen as heroes that saved lives in foiling a terrorist attack instead of killing civilians in a terrorist attack). If the 1st option is chosen (by the Kremlin), the practical parts of the plan will be handled by the military rather than the FSB.

Serbia. An option similar to the Armenian one in Serbia has a much smaller chance of any realization, but the risks are disproportionately higher. Almost all of the risks are characterized as unacceptable - there are too many Western secret services and their agents in Serbia, and it is extremely difficult to control the situation on their territory.

Canada. Traditionally, we have looked at Canada as a British sixth-rank without any serious independent weight, but now the situation has unfolded in such a way that classical pressure on the political elites of the West is not working well.

The Western public's mass perception of the war in Ukraine, with unequivocal support for the Ukrainian side, plays too big a role. And this is where Canada, where the Ukrainian lobby is one of the most influential, has become all too important, acting as a tacit center for the dissemination of such opinions.

For many years there has been a myth [the facts point to the unreliability of the story, but for some reason it’s still considered "partly true"] that Canadian special forces had once been deployed near Donetsk against DNR forces, where they were easily destroyed by the National Front fighters. The level of Canadians' preparedness for internal upheaval is also assessed as very low, so this country may be chosen as a target for demonstrative destabilization. I'm not able to provide sufficient answers to the question "why?" just yet, as that's up to the SVR (Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, analogous to the CIA).

(Anatoly) Chubais (high-rank Putin advisor who defected from Russia as a result of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine). I have said before that the risk of such escapes from Russia by top-level representatives was tolerated. After Chubais' emigration, control over everyone will intensify; instead of "soft prevention," very different measures may be taken. Almost all key figures have gone into total silence; who and what they are up to is a surprise even to us. But no one will be allowed to repeat Chubais's defection so easily - they are beginning to guard without fooling around.

Demoralization. The level of demoralization may peak by mid-April. This especially concerns the military most of all, but everyone else too. In the meantime (to prevent the demoralization), a search for an extreme breakthrough solution is considered necessary, that I don’t even know what it could be.

But it is from this perspective that new fronts [especially if military action is initiated by Serbia] could allow for recalibration. It’s like using a multitude of antidotes for poisonous spider bites: the risk that the antidote will prove more deadly than the poison exists, but still, still, still. I'm not making excuses for the situation – just relaying the observation.

China. To put it mildly, there is no equality in Moscow-Beijing relations. Beijing is pathologically avoiding any publicity; Any discussion of “pressure on China” on certain aspects is prohibited. (Russia has no leverage to pressure China to do anything.)

Provoking China into war with Taiwan stings more than acceptable. (China might make Russia pay for inciting such provocations)

But this is such a desirable outcome (for Russia, that China attacks Taiwan), that it’s unlikely our people will stop trying. China is strongly resisting, and they know how to block information too well (difficult for Kremlin propaganda to penetrate China). The essence of negotiations (between Russia & China about Taiwan) is not known to many.

About Shoigu. An extremely limited number of people know about his situation, so it's impossible to get reliable information.

In terms of information that could not be concealed - highest level of threats of assassination attempts on key figures of the (Russian) state. From covert operatives to attempted point-blank strikes with high-precision weapons. I would not claim paranoia – everything is possible.

From this perspective, the disappearance of Shoigu and Gerasimov can be explained very simply - unprecedented personal security measures.

Oddities. There are too many strange things about our prisoners in Ukraine. There is no insight into a number of high-ranking officers who are missing, but who may be in captivity.

In this case, the question is why hasn’t the Ukrainian side presented such significant trump cards?

There is information that there are psychologists and (agency) recruiters, including foreigners [or rather, they are the core] working on prisoners in Ukraine. (To turn these high-ranking officers against Russia)

It’s impossible to exclude the possibility that a new ROA (Russian Liberation Army – captured Russian soldiers who fought against Stalin) is being formed from the prisoners, and yet it’s impossible to confirm either.

That the captured Russians could form the backbone of regional separatist movements inside Russia is a real threat. Which countries are involved in such an exercise is an open question, as there is too little data.

There is reason to believe that individual countries are preparing "their" regions. The risk zone is too vast: Siberia, Tatarstan, Yakutia, Khabarovsk.

Legal pitfalls. There are two mutually exclusive attitudes: keeping the status-quo of a "special operation" and "preparing a broad involvement of volunteers.”

Hence the mishap: only professional forces can participate in a special operation (no conscripts).

No one will allow the events to be legally redefined as a war, but then the "case of the volunteer" hangs in the air.

Minsk will not help with troops, then the CSTO will certainly not help. There is no point in even discussing it at this point.

Kadyrov. Should the FSB need to detain someone in Chechnya (Hint: Kadyrov), now it’s become completely realistic. And God help those repeating some threats of issuing “an order to shoot to kill” the guests (Guests would be the FSB detaining Kadyrov in Chechnya). But we give Kadyrov an "A" for his informational coverage - a very talented blogger.

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Wednesday, March 23, 2022

Putin's plan to attack Poland & Russian concentration camps for Kherson population

My translation of the 11th #FSBletters from the #WindofChange inside the FSB. Subjects: Poland + Ukraine. Dated 3/21, that's today, & URGENT. Please share far & wide.

I will add clarification comments inside parenthesis where necessary. Let's start:

"You may recall that even before the war with Ukraine, I wrote you about the preparations of anti-Polish provocations.

At that time, there was a catastrophically botched technical result when Polish soldier Emil Chechko escaped to Belarus, who told of the hundreds and thousands of refugees whom the Poles allegedly shot en-masse in the forests. (This claim was blatantly false, failed RU psyop)

Well, it’s impossible to simply forget such prepared material, when the people at the very top were involved in said preparation – it’s impossible to forget. To forget – means to accept the plan as ineffective & problematic. In the current situation that admission would threaten an exemplary flogging of the people in charge.

In addition, the question of Poland as a new possible target has not been dismissed and is not going to be dismissed. I will try to list the key points:

- Poland is the main supply channel for Ukraine. Including military supplies;

- Even in the case of a theoretical victory over Ukraine, although it is not even clear what this might look like, it would be Poland that would become "Ukraine in exile," reducing the effect of victory to a minimum;

- The use of tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine would mean Russia's defeat in the eyes of both adversaries and neutral countries: such a powerful argument for a local conflict would demonstrate military weakness, which not even military success could override. Therefore, to possibly intimidate the West, such strikes could, very much hypothetically, be carried out against Poland; (Meaning as an empty threat only)

- The situation in Ukraine transforms Poland into a powerful economic beneficiary with a simultaneous growth of absolute anti-Russian sentiments there: a huge inflow of refugees, among whom there is a high percentage of both the wealthy & young able-bodied, the role of Western aid transiting into the country; assistance from other countries, etc. For Russia, and Belarus, too, the example of Poland's rapid economic and military breakthrough is turning into a huge threat;

- Poland is enlarging its own army, in addition, this is where Ukraine's military can be withdrawn if Ukraine loses, and in Russia too many people in power believe that there is clearly too much (for the Polish army) to defend, which means Poland is preparing for an attack on Russia.

That is why a conditional "anti-Polish bridgehead" is now being actively prepared. The dead Emil Chechko will also play his part: at any moment the Polish special services will be accused of his murder, which will amount to an "attack on Belarus" with the corresponding invocation of the clause on mutual military assistance (between Russia & Belarus).

(Emil Chechko was allegedly found dead, hanged, in Belarus on March 17th, 2022.)

Medvedev's anti-Polish passage is also part of this "sentiment conditioning” (preparing the Russian people to accept an attack on Poland as a necessity, and shore up public support in Russia).

The only counterweight to this – absence of concrete strategy for Russian leadership’s behavior.

When decisions are made literally on a knee-jerk and ad hoc basis, the risk for mistakes goes off the charts, and any decisions already made can be changed just as rapidly. But at the moment, the risks of a military operation against Poland are steadily increasing, and there are no guarantees for anything in today's Russia.

 

(INTERMISSION) (Will finish translation later. The rest is about Ukraine. I've been going non-stop for weeks now and I am exhausted. Please see this thread for insight on why I am doing this, and what I believe:

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1503475294316900353)



(Big takeaway, although unsurprising, from the 2nd half of the letter: Mass "cleansing" is being planned for Kherson as they are unable to get the civilian population to submit to Russian rule. Russian leadership has instructed those on the ground to "stop playing with them" & )(a "Big Terror" will happen in Kherson. Kremlin is prepared to eliminate up to half of Kherson's population of ~300,000, optics be damned, to get Kherson to submit on its knees to Russia. Genocide. And - assertion that Russia has completed its transformation into a fascist state)



(END OF INTERMISSION - TRANSLATION CONTINUES BELOW)

On the subject of Ukraine.

Even our staff’s mindset is rapidly changing for the worse. (I could think of half-a-dozen distinct ways to interpret exactly what #WindofChange means here, so I can’t offer clarification)

Cities that are under control of the Russian army are essentially in a constant state of rebellion. If it were possible to identify the coordinators of the protests, they’d be liquidated (killed). The saving grace for the Ukrainian civilians there is that it is unclear who needs to be grabbed (by Russian authorities). There are fears that attempts to conduct pinpoint brutality as revenge (by Russian military against Ukrainian civilians) may result in a real rebellion, which could then only be suppressed by a massacre of civilians. This is completely negative option, and even the most reckless bosses here (FSB) understand this.


However, there is a demand to “stop playing with them (occupied Ukrainian civilians)” from the very top (Kremlin). There is fatigue from attempts to create a pretty picture and to find an appropriate plan.

“Big Terror” is being planned for Kherson, which will go through several stages:

- A switch to extremely harsh methods of dispersing protestors by the Russian authorities. Goal: To reduce the scale of the currently massive protests down to local skirmishes, and to cause severe injuries to individual protestors.

- To strengthen the countermeasures, "partially civilian structures" may be involved: Cossacks brought in from the LNR (Russia-occupied Luhansk oblast in Ukraine, since 2014), Crimea and Russia itself, members of veteran organizations, "combat wings," and so on.;

- Transition to local terror to “squeeze” people off the streets;

- As soon as the mass of protests is reduced, the final stage of “door-to-door terror” will begin: here the FSB will play first fiddle and people will be detained in their homes at night during curfew and transferred to Russian territories (concentration camps & worse). It is assumed that protests will cease completely after such cleansing – the remaining protesters will be suppressed openly, as was the principle used to form the first Anti-Maidan in Ukraine in 2014. We are prepared to remove half of the city if it becomes necessary.



(Above is the description of the Kremlin/FSB plan, reference to “we” is Kremlin/FSB & from context it is clear that #WindofChange does not want any part of the “stop playing with them” plan for the occupied Kherson.)


Again, every new development showed that our people (Russian government) refused to accept the reality of the responses (by Ukrainians) to our actions (Russian government). (Meaning Ukrainian resistance to Russian actions control the occupation have continued to surprise them)

Regardless, the plan for such suppression measures will be implemented – the leadership does not see any other way as the current situation categorically does not suit them. (#WindofChange's personal assessment that this plan will be executed)


As for Russia, it is already impossible to rebound from the complete transformation to fascism. (Russia is now a fascist state)


But in light of the extreme chaotization of all of the country's structures and segments, fascism in Russia will take the form of indiscriminate large-scale terror.


(#WindofChange asserts that unlike Hitler's Germany for example, another fascist state, Kremlin lacks total control over domestic government & societal structures, which will result in large-scale terror inside Russia to bring everyone in line.)


To say that “Terror existed in Russia before” is not exactly correct because everything is relative. It used to be bad, ahead of us is hell.


P.S. Many (Russian military) frontline lieutenants were killed at either point-blank range or under strange circumstances. This issue is not being disclosed & there is no hurry to investigate either.

I can’t affirm categorically, but there are indirect signs of refusals to follow orders of “Forward! Forward! Forward!” (On the front in Ukraine by pretty high-level Russian officers)

(END OF TRANSLATION)

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Tuesday, March 15, 2022

No way out for Putin - 7th letter from the Wind of Change inside the FSB

My translation of the 7th #FSBletters from #WindofChange inside the FSB to Vladimir Osechkin. Written March 14th EU time(~2 days ago). Covers #WindofChange’s assessment of the Operation “Gordian Knot” that is being cooked up by the Kremlin. The text is barely 1100 words.

Vladimir Osechkin is a Russian human-rights activist exiled in France since 2015. His years-long fight against systemic torture in Russian prisons sanctioned & overseen by the Russian government began when he was still in Russia and continues to this day.

There are some in the Russian intelligence services, such as the FSB, that sympathize with his crusade to expose & end the horrible tortures in Russian prisons. The 1st #FSBletters I translated is only the 1st since the invasion of Ukraine. There are more that preceded it.

My comments for clarification of context, tone, and also nuance that can be missed from translating from RU to EN are in parenthesis (). Author’s original parenthesis are in brackets []. So, let's roll:

“Vladimir, good [REDACTED]!

I now have an opportunity (time) to briefly explain the previous letter (6th #FSBletters)

The Iranians made some noise, but it turned out to be IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard) saber-rattling: they were aiming at Mossad (Israeli intelligence agency) facilities, apparently based on intel that Mossad fed them (IRGC didn’t know the info was coming from Mossad), but Mossad set them up them up to hit US facilities instead. (MY COMMENT: Before people start freaking out – 1) Mossad likely fed bad coordinates to IRGC so there’s minimal damage & 2) Mossad warned the US of the attack before it happened. No, Mossad did not betray/setup US. It wouldve been done in coordination between Israel/US.)

Turns out, everything worked out, and our guys canceled the champagne: all prerequisites are satisfied for concluding a nuclear deal (by the US) with Iran, after which Iranian oil will start flowing (to the West), replacing Russian oil.

About the “Gordian Knot”

While sometimes share my own assessment as I see the situation, here (in the prior #6 #FSBletters) I conveyed our (Russian government – Kremlin & FSB bosses) vision and plans in the current situation. Such plans also have one more important goal, beside the implementation, which can turn out like the “Ukrainian Blitzkrieg”: internal psychological reassurance in the form of the semblance of a solution. A sort of self-motivation or even self-sustainment.

Moreover, I can’t criticize the plan too strongly either: at least it has more [technically speaking] objective factors than in previous bravura marches. (He is describing the previous delusional plans as if they are military parade marches – everyone just starts marching without thinking)

Europe, and most importantly France will start pressuring Zelensky (President of Ukraine) to get him to capitulate: Their elections are just around the corner, they think in terms of rather simple mercantile categories, and by and large, assess the situation as impressively (sarcasm) as in the 30s of the last century, when an ordinary Austrian artist actively involved himself in geopolitics.

The attack of the Yavoriv facility by Lvov is just part of this general plan: The attack was not on an ordinary Ukrainian military facility, but on a facility of international importance, where there could very well have been active NATO advisors.

The attack was intentionally carried out so that the trajectory of the missile flight went through European (NATO) air. And the West’s reaction is playing right into Russian plans: West is convinced that it can completely strangle Russia without ever unsheathing its sword.

My personal conclusion – a large-scale international conflict is unfolding at a rapid pace. (Domestically) Russia has aggressively mobilized the power resources (riot police, etc.) and in classical terms we have entered the stage of fascisization. (Russia is now a fascist country structurally) If the West is hoping that we (Russia as a country) we will self-immolate in this mode, then we (Russia as a whole) have blossoming panic-calls for large-scale external aggression. The inevitability of the collapse of the nation (Russia) with the systematic execution of the West’s strategy (in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine) is obvious to many of us (author probably means FSB analysts, or maybe Russian people in general). Therefore, many such people that were placing blame squarely on Putin for his adventurism, albeit without vocalizing it, now consider the option of external aggression as the only one left to survive: “What else can we do?” (The nuance in Russian is critical to convey - he does not place himself into the category people who think this way)

The attempt to force a rat into the corner to methodically crush it may not turn out to have such a methodical result.

This of course is only my view, a subjective view, but that we have moved from the stage of denying reality to working on addressing the question of resistance is fact.

Yes, we no longer have an economy, nor do we have a capable army, but the psychological readiness of the West for war is also assessed as even lower.

That Kiev would last 3 whole days was barely believed by anyone here on the first day (of the invasion). That Ukraine would hold for 10 days – they didn’t believe it in the Pentagon, nor in our Defense Ministry, nor anywhere else.

A new reality has arrived. There are no hopes for a “Victory in Ukraine” – even the taking of Kiev would yield nothing, and even the taking of the entire Ukraine would not lead to victory.
And the prospect of such a “capture” (of Kiyv or of Ukraine) do not appear very realistic. To
put it mildly.

And Russia has turned into a different nation: The war has affected everyone psychologically.

The category of “how it used to be” has totally disappeared.

Current Russia has no survival outside of a military expansion regime.

The tiniest decrease in internal mobilization will lead to an unprecedented internal upheaval – there is more steam under the lid than we can handle, so the only technical solution is to redirect that steam toward other objects.

There is no place for Russia in the current political world order, inside Russia there is no organizational resource capable of a systemic coup and a change of power.

Takes time to reach a state of complete chaos, right here and now the large scale system that is Russia will not fall apart [this is not Cuba with its quantitative localization]. Minimal internal mobilization of the population will be sufficient to redirect the attention of the population.

The question is no longer whether there will be an external war, but in its forms and variations.

Not in the long-term [that no longer exists], but very soon.

Please note: Neither COVID nor the common cold is no longer observed. This is a normal story when everyone & everything is mobilized. Afterward, of course there will be relaxation and a “hangover,” but right now everyone is too involved in what is happening – no one is indifferent.

The state from the effect of “action on adrenaline” is an extreme situation – it is a characteristic state for both individuals and society as a whole. A Russia beyond the boundaries of this state can no longer be observed. It is also impossible to get stuck in this state – as I wrote before.

A rabbit, for example, can also sprint away from a threat without stopping - until the heart bursts.

Therefore, the decision to "change the external environment" technically appears to be without alternative.

Not a “correct” one (the decision), but precisely without alternative from the point of view of the current system in Russia.
The situation in the world is such that the old format of coexistence is fully destroyed.
 
Even if we allow that theoretically Shoigu (Russian Minister of Defence) will be blamed for everything tomorrow, who “lied, slipped in false data and unleashed a war,” and is “convicted and shot himself” - will change nothing with the West.

For the West, today’s Russia has become an unacceptable threat, and even the departure of V.V. Putin will not change that calculus. For Germany in ’45 the question of Hitler’s death also could not become an answer formulated as “The guilty is dead, we are innocent.”

Overall, All old models of behavior & analysis – all this is now irrelevant.

A month ago, I would have considered a plan for a Ukrainian Blitzkrieg as falsified, but today I consider a scenario of a large-scale international conflict as quite possible.

Russia has approached this with an entire set of arguments, main one being – “We have no other choice.” Why there is no other choice – is a question that is always answered in very different ways.

The West will say that we started all this, we can say that we “were defending ourselves, and you responded unreasonably.” And every point of view will have a lot of followers.

Let me remind you for a second that Hitler did not force the population of Germany into war - they wanted it much more than our population wants this war.

Of course, there is also a chance that our powers-that-be choose a traditional strategy of “lets sit through this, wait it out, and we will see how it all resolves.”

Previously, we practiced this strategy in cases of force majeure from the very top.

But right now, I don’t really believe it: the processes in motion are so large-scale and intense [in terms of time, in terms of emotions], so…

Of course, we can fall apart organizationally the moment an external campaign starts [in any shape that could take].

We (Russia) could start an external war and not show up for it ourselves (entire Russia) because of the internal disintegration that such a turn of events would cause.

Here we are already talking about extreme [atypical] scenarios, which are distinguished by the fact that they are almost not amenable to precise logical analysis.

No analyst could’ve provided an overview of the results of the First or Second World Wars before they began.

On the other hand, history remembers Idi Amin and his attempt to score a “little win” against Tanzania.

But, unfortunately, the global scale of consequences of those actions and current ones is monstrously different. It's not easy for us to rebound.

P.S. In our structure (in the FSB), everyone really misses t he good old days when the "Toxin development facility" was recognized by the leadership as key current threat to Russia's security.

(END OF TRANSLATION)

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